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EU-US Disconnection: How Severe, How Long, and How Fruitful for EU Strategic Autonomy?

This article examines the growing disconnect between the European Union and the United States, particularly under Donald Trump’s second term, marked by aggressive rhetoric, ideological divergence and unpredictability in foreign policy. Trump’s actions — ranging from insulting allies to threatening annexations — have undermined international law and the global order the U.S. helped build. The EU faces a dilemma: while Trump’s erratic behavior may not last, deeper ideological divides over societal values persist, especially regarding immigration and social conservatism. In response, the EU is accelerating its efforts toward strategic autonomy, strengthening defense cooperation and preparing for scenarios where U.S. support may falter. However, the article argues that rather than abandoning NATO, Europe should reinforce its own security mechanisms while maintaining NATO as the primary defense framework, ensuring complementarity between the two.